THE BASEBALL SAVANT

MORE ON HALLADAY FROM BATTER'S BOX

I should have looked at Batter's Box before I posted my Halladay article so I could have put this in, but I didn't touch too much on projecting Halladay out. To me it's a non issue and one that I'd just assume the risk on. However, the guys over Batter's Box ran a self describe quick & dirty analysis on Halladay's comparables by using Baseball-Reference's play-by-play index and used his parameters as hurlers who have pitched since 1980 who have amassed over 2000IP and an ERA+ of 132 before the age of 32.

It's a great list, but one of the commenters mentioned taking Halladay's size & work ethic into consideration when evaluating the long term prospects for Halladay. I agree with this and I'd even throw in the idea that you have to take into consideration that Halladay is a RHP and eliminate LHP due to mechanical differences. Right now I'll just stick to size and list the players mentioned the list generated by Batter's Box and the players' height & weight as stated by Baseball-Reference:

Roy Halladay: 6'6/225
Greg Maddux: 6'0/170
Dave Stieb: 6'1/195
Roger Clemens: 6'4/220
Tom Glavine: 6'1/190
John Smoltz: 6'3/210
Pedro Martinez: 5'11/170
Kevin Brown: 6'4/195
Mike Mussina: 6'2/185
Bret Saberhagan: 6'1/195
Kevin Appier: 6'2/195
Tim Hudson: 6'0/160
Mark Buehrle: 6'2/200
Jimmy Key: 6'1/190
David Cone: 6'1/190
Jose Rijo: 6'2/200
C.C. Sabathia: 6'7/250

The first thing that pops out is that Halladay is a rare animal when it comes to his size. For all the talk about scouts loving the pitchers who are 6'3-6'4, we'd do well to look for pitchers between listed heights of 6'0-6'1 which means most pitchers are shorter than that. Those heights for Hudson, Maddux, Glavine, Cone, Rijo and Martinez are generous from what I've seen.

The guy closest to Halladay in regards of size is Sabathia, but Sabathia is quite a bit heavier than Halladay and also a southpaw. When you see the two pitchers together they don't really look all that much alike.

If you eliminate lefties then the closest comparable you come to is Roger Clemens who is listed at 6'4/220lbs compared to Roy Halladay's 6'6/225lbs.

The Clemens comparison is a tough one. Clemens had an incredible work ethic and from what I can tell Halladay does a great job of conditioning himself and staying in shape. He doesn't quite have the maniacal drive that Clemens was reported as having, but I think that is a point that can be argued.

The huge elephant in the room regarding Clemens comparisons is what role PED played in Clemens success. Blue Jays fans should be familiar with the Rocket. Clemens had easily the best 2-year period in his career while in Toronto and you could also argue that his 1997 & 1998 seasons were the two best of his entire career!

From the age of 33 forward, Clemens was a beast. From the age of 33 to 42 Clemens went 10 years with at least 30 starts in each year except for one in which he made only 29 starts. In that decade's worth of time, Clemens posted a record of 159-74 over 2,171IP while posting an ERA+ of 140!

From this perspective, if you are the Jays then making a long term investment in Roy Halladay seems like a no-brainer. It's obvious you lock this guy up long term and then enjoy a decade of him being one of the very best pitchers the majors has ever seen.

The other side to that coin is taking a look at the PECOTA projections from the 2009 Baseball Prospectus annual. The annual gives you the top-4 comparables for each player and those 4 players for Halladay are:

Chris Carpenter: 6'6/215
Kevin Brown: 6'4/195
Gaylord Perry: 6'4/215
Rick Reuschel: 6'3/235

Here are their stats from the age of 33 forward until the ends of their career:

Reuschel: 1300.7IP & 110ERA+
Brown: 1335IP & 135ERA+
Perry: 3055.7IP & 116ERA+
Carpenter: 93IP & 189ERA+

Carpenter is tough because he's 33-years old this season and is a contemporary of Halladay who is actually of similiar age. Carpenter is Halladay's #1 comparable entering according to PECOTA.

Carpenter is another player the Jays should be familiar with as Carpenter got his start with the Jays before they released.

Carpenter is also a tough comparison because Carpenter has been anything but healthy. He's two years older than Roy but with a lot fewer innings. Carpenter has been injured in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008 & 2009. He broke into the majors in 1997 and if you count his rookie season as a non-full season, then in his 13 years a major league player, Carpenter has only made 30+ starts in just 3 of them.

In one of those 3 years, Carpenter won the NL Cy Young Award and in the other one he finished 3rd but probably deserved to win that year too!

As far as body type, I would discount both Perry, Brown and Reuschel. Especially Big Daddy!

That leaves the most usual comparisons as Roger Clemens & Chris Carpenter. If you could have Roger Clemens going forward or the healthy version of Chris Carpenter (which essentially is what Roy Halladay is!) then how can you not believe this guy won't be a beast of a pitcher moving forward?

How can the Jays do anything but basically hand this guy the key to Canada and build around him?

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

DOC HALLADAY LEAVING CANADA? WHY HE SHOULDN'T!

There has been quite a bit of pixel used on Roy Halladay over at MLB Trade Rumors here, here, here, here, here, here, here & here. With the stature of a guy like Halladay there is no reason not to spend copious amounts of time wondering where he might go as it will affect pennant races quite a bit with services rendered.

On the other hand, what does it really mean for the Blue Jays to be actively listening to offers for Halladay? A guy who could easily be argued is the premier #1 starter in all of baseball? The Royals aren't actively listening for Zack Greinke. The Giants aren't actively listening for Tim Lincecum. The Mets aren't actively listening for Johan Santana.

I know I know. Halladay is a free agent after 2010 and those guys aren't so wouldn't the Jays be possibly listening to offers in order to better their team seeing how the price for Halladay might be so extravagant that he would make himself virtually unaffordable for the Blue Jays.

Or would he? It's tough to get into the mind of a pitcher let alone one as good has Halladay, but this his 12th season in Toronto and you have to think he's developed some affection for the big Canadian town. Halladay is also all over the Toronto leaderboards as an organization. A quick scroll finds these rankings for Halladay in Toronto for a pitcher who has thrown as many innings as he has:

ERA: 2nd
Wins: 2nd
Winning %: 1st
WHIP: 1st
H/9: 2nd
BB/9: 1st
K/9: 1st
Games: 3rd
IP: 3rd
Strikeouts: 2nd
Games Started: 3rd
Complete Games: 3rd
Shutouts: 2nd
K:BB ratio: 1st
HR/9: 2nd
ERA+: 1st

And this isn't even counting individual seasons of Halladay that rank among the best ever for a Toronto starter.

On the Mount Rushmore of Blue Jays starting pitchers you have think Dave Stieb, Roy Halladay, Jimmy Key and Jim Clancy. I think right now you'd have to consider Stieb as the greatest Blue Jay starter of all time, but Halladay is closing that gap in a hurry. Stieb had 408 starts for the Jays while Halladay has made 272. If Halladay makes another 17 starts for Toronto this season then that will take his mark to 289, just 111 away from Steib or a little less than 4 more seasons.

If Halladay sticks around for another 2-3 years then you'd have to believe he'd be the greatest starter in Toronto Blue Jays history. Not only that, but Halladay is on his way to having a Hall-of-Fame career and the Blue Jays have yet to have a player enter the Hall-of-Fame wearing a Blue Jays cap.

I know these things are incidental, but historically they are important I would imagine. At least they would seem to be important to me.

The bigger picture here is the question of Toronto "having" to deal Halladay to get something in return.

I've never heard of Toronto as being one of the huge markets the way New York, Chicago or Los Angeles is, but it's not like it isn't huge in it's own right. According to Toronto's wikipedia page, the Toronto metro area has a population of 5,555,912 people. That's the biggest metro area in Canada and the city proper is the 5th biggest city in North America.

In relation to U.S. metro areas, Toronto would rank 7th behind New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia & Houston. Toronto is also the biggest media market in Canada although I can't find where it would rank with regard to the top US media markets.

The point here is that it's ridiculous to think Toronto isn't a big time market that could afford more salary than they currently carry. The 2009 team payrolls show Toronto ranking 16th in the majors and 7th in the A.L. If you break major league baseball into three tiers (big, medium and small), then Toronto ranking 16th would put them into the medium sized market tier and one of the smaller ones at that. The Cleveland Indians take on a bigger payroll than the Blue Jays and Cleveland ranks 26th (27th if you include Toronto) in the US in metro area! Toronto has over 2.5x as many people as Cleveland yet the Indians have a higher payroll.

Another thing to point out is that the two highest payrolls in the AL reside in Boston & New York, two teams that just happen to play in the same division as the Blue Jays. Not a tenable position for Jays fans.

A lot of this talk has centered around the notion that Toronto isn't going to compete in 2009 and Halladay's contract is up after 2010 and the Jays won't be able to resign him anyway given the prospects of his salary demands as a free agent.

None of this makes a lot of sense to me.

The first thought is that Toronto can take on more salary. In 2008 they had a payroll of $97 million so it's not like the Jays can't operate at the $100 million mark given the size of their market. It's almost ridiculous that they don't already. They are operating at $20 million less right now at $80 million so tacking on another $20 million doesn't seem like a horrible idea, especially if the Jays want to compete in the AL East.

The 2nd thought is looking at the contract obligations in 2010 & beyond. Are the Jays going to make the playoffs in 2009? It's looking like a distant thought compared to early in the season when Toronto was leading the East. However, 2009 isn't optimal for Toronto as they are dealing with massive injuries in the rotation.

Let's take a look at Toronto and beyond 2009 in regards to their salary obligations and where they are as a team.

Starting Rotation

This year saw extensive bad luck as the Jays lost Jesse Litsch, Shawn Marcum and Dustin McGowan to injury. That's brutal when you lose 60% of your rotation not to mention the loss of A.J. Burnett to free agency. That's 80% of your 2008 rotation which means a lot of holes have to be filled.

On the other hand, the Jays have done a helluva job filling those holes. Ricky Romero has been a revelation so far this season going 7-3 in 12 starts with an ERA+ of 145! Halladay's ERA+ is 151 so Romero has come up HUGE as a solid if not spectacular (and maybe he is!) #2 starter. No other team in the AL East can boast a frontend rotation with 2 guys with ERA+ of 145 and over. The Blue Jays can!

Another revelation is the pitching of Scott Richmond. Richmond is tough because he's 29-years old and this is just his 2nd year in the major leagues. There is some definite fluke to his 3.69ERA given that his BABIP is .252 compared to a league average of .301! He's getting defensive help. His fielding independent ERA is 4.72 compared to his current 3.69 making him almost a run worse if you don't factor in the defense. You can't really argue that fact, but you can argue that Richmond is striking out 7.5 hitters per 9 which is more than solid. You can also argue that Richmond is getting extremely unlucky with his HR/FB% at 15% when league average is around 10%-11%!

Either way it doesn't matter. Richmond isn't a #1 or #2 starter so he's at best backend material especially when Litch, Marcum & McGowin return which isn't even considering Brett Cecil into the equation. Given Richmond's strikeout rate and his unlucky HR/9 rate, he's a pretty nice asset to have at the back of a rotation or even as a long reliever.

Speaking of Brett Cecil, he's a 22-year old former 1st round pick of the Blue Jays from 2007 draft. In 2007, Cecil ripped up ss-A ball at the age of 20 to the tune of a 1.27ERA over 50 innings with a K/9 of 10.1. In 2008 as a 21-year old, he went through 3-levels (A+, AA & AAA) posting a combined ERA of 2.88 in 119IP with a K/9 of 9.8. Cecil has a low-90s fastball from the left side with a great slider and a fringy curve & change, but he's still getting used to it. He's young and he's not as bad as his stat line would suggest so far in Toronto. Cecil's BABIP is .364 and his HR/FB% is a ridiculously high 19.5%! This season in Toronto, Cecil's HR/9 is 1.8 compared to his career minor league mark of 0.4! He's getting ridiculously unlucky at the major league level but his is a #2 starter.

The point is that Cecil wouldn't have been up if not for injuries, but he's getting a taste and he has had successful starts at the major league level this season and that's a good thing.

Looking towards 2010 the Jays will have the following starters:

Roy Halladay
Ricky Romero
Shaun Marcum
Jesse Litsch
Dustin McGowan
Scott Richmond
Brett Cecil

That's 7 starters. Now take a look at when those starters are going to become free agents:

Roy Halladay: 2011
Ricky Romero: 2015
Shaun Marcum: 2013
Jesse Litsch: 2015
Dustin McGowan: 2013
Scott Richmond: 2010
Brett Cecil: 2015

I'm guessing on Cecil & Romero because 2009 are their rookie seasons. I think the rule is that once you accrue 6-years of service time at the major league level you become a free agent and 2009-2014 will be 6-years for both. It could get a little tricky with Cecil once everyone comes back in 2010 because you would think Cecil wouldn't be in the rotation but who knows. Richmond is tough too because he was an undrafted player out of Oklahoma State who pitched in Indy ball until the Jays signed him to a FA contract. Because of that I think he's free to go when his contract is up so whether or not he's brought back to Toronto is up for debate. He is a Canadian though if that matters.

Now going back to the Jays in 2010 when Halladay will be in the final year of his contract, you have to look at what Toronto will be facing. Right now the Jays have $44 million in salary obligations for 2011. After the 2010 season the following players will be coming off the books and their 2010 salaries in ( ):

Roy Halladay ($15,750,000)
B.J. Ryan ($12,000,000)
Scott Rolen ($11,625,000)
Lyle Overbay ($7,950,000)
Scott Downs ($4,000,000)
Jason Frasor (est. $3,000,000)

That's about $55 million right there coming off leaving the Jays with $44 million. But then take a look at what Toronto could potentially have in 2011 if they kept Halladay:

C-J.P. Arencibia, Matt Liuzza, or FA signing
1B-David Cooper, Brian Dopirak, or FA signing
2B-Aaron Hill
SS-Angel Sanchez, or FA signing (Justin Jackson down the road a bit)
3B-Jose Bautista or FA signing (maybe Kevin Ahrens down the road)
LF-Adam Lind
CF-Vernon Wells
RF-Alex Rios
DH-Travis Snider

The good news for the Jays are guys like Hill, Snider & Lind. The bad news is that Toronto signed Wells & Rios to some horrible contracts and those players didn't end up being nearly as good as the money they are making. They both have almost immovable contacts too.

It's not as horrible as it seems. The Jays have legit hitters in Cooper (potentially), Lind, Hill & Snider. It takes some of the slack off of Rios & Wells in that those guys only have to be complimentary players.

In the short term the Jays are a little thin at 1B, 3B, C, and SS. They aren't exactly positions you want to be thin at considering the two most important defensive positions on the field are C & SS while you need serious offensive productin at 1B & 3B.

BUT IN THE LONG RUN.........

Does trading Roy Halladay for parts make this a better team? If the Jays sign Halladay to a $20 million deal per anum that only puts their contact requirements for 2011 at $64 million. If they operate at $100 million then that leaves them $36 million to figure out how to fix problems in those 4 positions becuase every other position the Jays have is already fixed through already existing contracts or readily available minor league talent.

Plus if you are a contending team, don't you want to build around guys like Roy Halladay?

Does any team really believe they are going to get equal value from trading a talent like Halladay?

If you subscribe to the theory that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect then how does grabbing a couple of pitchers from Philadelphia like Kyle Drabeck and Carlos Carrasco going to give you equal value from a pitcher who has already established himself as a Hall-of-Fame talent in waiting?

Granted, the Jays could sign Halladay to an 8-year/$160 million dollar deal and then he blow out his arm so the risk in young talent on the cheap is a lot less. Given the notion that the Jays are already carrying MASSIVE contacts that were even more MASSIVE mistakes to both Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, you can understand why the Jays might be a bit gun shy in giving another guy another huge contract that will be almost impossible to move.

The Rios contact only looks bad in retrospect. Given the current market, it seems crazy to pay a guy like Rios $13 million a year when guys like Bobby Abreu & Adam Dunn aren't making near that amount, but hindsight is always 20/20.

To me it seems certain that the Jays would need to build around a guy like Halladay. I think that is what they were trying to do when they inked guys like Vernon Wells & Alex Rios to long term deals, but that didn't work out. I'm not sure though the way to solve the problem is to get rid of Halladay and try to remake your team through young unproven starters especially when you play in the same division as the Yankees & Red Sox.

THE MYTH OF THE TAMPA BAY RAYS

One thing that has to be made clear to teams is that the Rays of 2008 and beyond are the exception and not the rule. I've written on several occassions that the process by which the Rays came into their current form had as much to do with luck as with savvy and teams thinking the Rays made a blueprint for success for smaller market teams need to take a good look in the mirror.

Remember that the Rays were almost batting 1.000 with their top draft picks when they had them and don't forget that the Rays had to spend a decade as a last place team to acquire that talent. Also remember that the Rays also got lucky with other teams passing on better players. We all know about Pittsburgh passing on BJ Upton for Bryan Bullington, but don't forget that the Rockies & Royals passed on Evan Longoria for Greg Reynolds and Luch Hochevar respectively.

You can be sure that the Pirates would much rather have BJ Upton in the outfield with Andrew McCutchen and you can be for certain that the Royals & Rockies wouldn't mind having the best 3B in the majors for the forseeable future on their roster either.

Don't forget also that James Shields was an overlooked talent in the draft. The Mets made a HORRENDOUS trade giving up Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. The Twins made an awful deal by giving away Matt Garza for Delmon Young which I'm sure every Twins fan would love to have back. Carl Crawford was a 2nd round pick while guys like David Price & Tim Beckham were #1 overall picks.

And let's keep perspective here. The Rays were taken to 7 games in the 2008 ALCS by the Red Sox before losing the World Series. Joe Maddon wasn't a great in-game manager in the World Series and the Rays right now are a 3rd place team behind the Red Sox & Yankees at 4.5GB both teams.

Keep in mind also that the Yankees are tied with Boston for the best record in the AL, both just 3 games back of the Dodgers for best record in the majors. Both Boston & New York are on pace to finish the season at 97-65.

Keep in mind also that the Yankees really haven't gotten great starting pitching. Their backend bullpen is in shambles and A-Rod missed the first month of the season.

Keep in mind that Boston has had to deal with injuries to Youkilis, Big Papi sucking, Pedroia being way off his MVP pace and the starting pitching not performing that well. Boston also has the worst defensive efficiency in the AL.

Granted, not everything has worked out well for the Rays, but they still are 2nd in the AL in runs and you can't possibly have thought Ben Zobrist & Jason Bartlett would have the two highest OPS+ on the team! The Rays have struggled some with the rotation namely that Scott Kazmir and David Price haven't been lights out, but everything else is going well.

You could argue the Tampa bullpen isn't as good as it was last season, but they are tied with the Yankees & Red Sox in IS% (inherited runners scored percentage) and their bullpen ERA ranks 2nd in the AL. Given the important stats, it's hard to distinguish whether the Rays or Red Sox have the best bullpen in the AL.

But you get the point. A lot is going well with Tampa while there have been fairly sizeable problems with New York & Boston yet the Rays trail both clubs by 4.5 games.

THE BOTTOM LINE?

I've never really taken the time to look closely at the Jays but they are interesting to say the least. The AL East is probably the most interesting division in all of sports. Obviously the Yankees & Red Sox are huge draws, but the Rays getting good only adds to the drama.

The Orioles & Blue Jays don't get as much attention but they should. Baltimore has some very talented players at the major league level such as Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and Brian Roberts while also having a very promising crop of young pitching not too far away from the majors.

Toronto has a team that could and should be competing. A team that potentially could field a group of hitters like Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Travis Snider, Alex Rios, Vernon Well and David Cooper should be able to score some runs. A rotation that features guys like Roy Halladay, Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch and Dusin McGowan should also be able to prevent some runs.

But Roy Halladay is a big part of that equation not only from a competitive point of view but also an historical one.

If the Rays are an exception then maybe the biggest question regarding Toronto is their ability to compete with New York & Boston going forward? Can they really?

I haven't taken management into consideration in any of this analysis but at the end of the day, you have to think the market that is Toronto can handle a payroll that is at least $100 million. Given all the other things I've pointed out, it seems silly to even think about trading arguably the best pitcher in the major leagues in hopes of acquiring "young" talent on the cheap that i going to be able to compete with the Yankees & Red Sox.

When the Red Sox needed an ace starter, they traded for Josh Beckett. When the Yankees needed an ace starter they signed C.C. Sabathia & A.J. Burnett.

When the Blue Jays have an ace starter they trade it away for Kyle Drabeck?

It doesn't make sense and I don't see how Toronto management can expect people to keep supporting a team with the priorities of not winning. The Rays have built themselves up to the point where at best the Jays can hope for is 4th place. The Orioles are on their way relegating the Jays to potentially last place status for the forseeable future.

It doesn't have to be that way, but I think for Toronto to avoid the cellar they need to make Halladay a priority. He's a rarity in that he's a legit #1 ace stopper and the Toronto isn't a small market club like the Marlins, Pirates, Padres, Royals, A's, Brewers, Reds or Twins. They can afford to keep him and try to build their team around him.

You can't convince me that Toronto is a small market franchise based on the demographics of the city alone. To run a team like one is fallacy and if that is the case then management has a lot to answer for.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

YANKEES A BEACON OF DEFENSE?

Most of the time when you hear talk of the Yankees defense in the past few seasons it has always centered around what the Yankees don't do well. Whether it's Derek Jeter getting hammered for his defense and his undeserving Gold Gloves, Johnny Damon's arm, Jason Giambi's glove at 1B or even Alex Rodriguez's defense at 3B here lately because of his recent surgery.

However, a look at the defensive efficiency standings and you find the Yankees ranked #1 in the AL with a mark of .703 just a hair ahead of Seattle's .702.

That's a lot to be excited about in my opinion. On the other hand, when you go look at the AL's RA/G you find that New York ranks 11th in the AL, allowing 4.79 runs per game whereas Seattle ranks 1st in the AL at allowing just 4.23 runs per game.

In the case of the Mariners, the pitching and the fielding are going hand in hand, but with New York it definitely looks like the Yankees could be a lot worse off if they weren't getting such good defensive contributions from the fielders.

League average BABIP for pitchers so far in the American League is .301. Let's take a look at the Yankees starters and see how they are faring.

CC Sabathia: .261 (GB% = 44.2%)
AJ Burnett: .287 (GB% = 41.8%)
Andy Pettitte: .310 (GB% = 45.1%)
Joba Chamberlain: .318 (GB% = 48.6%)
Chien Ming Wang: .397 (GB% = 53.3%)
Phil Hughes: .281 (GB% = 36.1%)

Sort of a mixed bag really. It is suprising though that the guys with the fewest ground balls hit have the lower BABIP. It would seem in this case that the Yankees outfield defense is getting the job done while the infield defense is suspect.

This makes sense. Going back to the 2009 Hardball Times Baseball Annual, New York's RF last season was Bobby Abreu who garnered a grade of "F-" in RF last year for New York! It simply can't get worse than that. Abreu earned that horrific grade by playing 1,310 innings in RF.

Abreu's OOZ was 32 and his RZR was .872.

By comparison, Nick Swisher's OOZ so far this year is 26 and his RZR is .942 in only 540 innings. If we adjust for innings, then Swisher's RZR will come in at the same .942 through 1,310 innings in RF, but his OOZ will increase to 63.

Last year the closest RFs to come to those numbers were Randy Winn, Franklin Guiterrez and Kosuke Fukedome. Here are their numbers from 2008

Fukedome: RZR = .948, OOZ = 68
Guiterrez: RZR = .955, OOZ = 55
Winn: RZR = .945, OOZ = 70
Swisher: RZR = .942, OOZ = 63 (Adjusted for 1,310 innings)

Fukedome, Guiterrez & Winn all earned a defensive grade of "A+" last year in RF. Swisher's RZR is a tick below the other 3 and his OOZ on an inning by inning basis is a little lower as well, but it's hard to argue that Swisher isn't at least a "B+" right fielder and in all liklihood he's probably a solid "A" fielder in RF this season for the Bombers.

That is a significant defensive upgrade in RF for New York over Abreu. Swisher's OPS+ of 122 is also just a tick better than Abreu's OPS+ of 120 last season while a Yankee. The Yankees are geting an outstanding defensive upgrade with Swisher in RF while getting the same offensive production that Abreu gave them last season.

The next change defensively for New York has been CF where Brett Gardner is getting most of the reps over Melky Cabrera. Last year the Hardball Times gave Cabrera's defense a "C" grade. It's not terrible but not not fantastic. Cabrera's "C" grade came in 973.7 innings. Adjusting Gardner's numbers this year for those innings we get the following comparison:

Cabrera 2008: RZR = .938, OOZ = 59
Gardner 2009: RZR = .913, OOZ = 74 (adjusted for 973.7 innings)
Cabrera 2009: RZR = .933, OOZ = 48 (adjusted for 973.7 innings)

The closest player to Gardner in 2008 was Willy Taveras who had an RZR of .908 and an OOZ of 74. That's almost identical to Gardner's projected stats for 2009 and the Hardball Times gave Taveras a defensive grade of "B".

This makes sense. Remember that RZR is the percentage of balls that are hit into a particular defender's zone that said defender coverts into outs .The OOZ number is the number of outs recorded a defender makes on balls outside of his defensive zone.

On 100 balls, the difference between Cabrera's .938 and Gardner's .913 is basically 2 outs. However, Gardner makes 15 more plays out of zone than Gardner so essentially Gardner makes 13 more outs than Cabrera in the outfield.

Taking this into consideration, the Yankees go from a "C" defender in CF in Cabrera to a "B" defender in CF in Gardner, which is yet another defensive upgrade for the Yankees in the outfield.

That takes us to LF and Johnny Damon.

Damon was the primary LF for the Yankees last season and put up an RZR of .917 and an OOZ of 33. This season, Damon has an RZR of .917 and an OOZ of 27. Damon is converting the exact same number of balls in his zone into outs, but so far Damon has played 618 innings and only has 27 OOZ plays. Last year Damon had 33 OOZ plays in 659.3IP. Thus Damons in on pace to have 29 OOZ plays this season adjusting for the same number of innings.

It means that Damon has lost a step in the OF as he's not making as many plays OOZ than he did last season, but with Gardner making a lot more plays in CF and Swisher being a beast in RF, the Yankees can afford to cheat a little to LF giving Gardner & Swisher more room to work and giving Damon a bit less responsibility.

That's telling only half the story though. If Damon stays healthy, he's on pace to play 1,192 innings in LF this season. Last year here are the Yankees LF who primarily manned the position:

Johnny Damon: 659.3 innings, RZR = .917, OOZ = 33
Xavier Nady: 389.7 innings, RZR = .886, OOZ = 17
Hideki Matsui: 176.3 innings, RZR = .886, OOZ = 9

Those 3 combined for 1,225.3 innings which is almost the same as Damon's projected 1,192 innings for 2009. Projecting Damon's numbers out for that many innings gives him:

Damon 2009: 1,192 innings, RZR = .917, OOZ = 52

It's hard to put a grade on that. The Hardball Times gave Carl Crawford an "A" grade in LF with an RZR of .911 & an OOZ of 47. Damon actually has those numbers beat, but Crawford did it in 920.7 innings so if you adjust them for 1,192 innings, Crawford's OOZ becomes 61.

Chase Headley got a "B" grade for an RZR of .916 and an OOZ of 36, but he did it in 713 innings last year for San Diego. If you adjust his innings to 1,192 then his OOZ becomes 60 which is 8 more than Damon.

Matt Holliday got a "C" grade for an RZR of .905 and an OOZ of 50 but he 1,229 innings. Adjusting Damon's OOZ for that many innings gives him an OOZ of 54.

That probably puts Damon in the "C+/B-" range of defense for LF, which isn't bad. This gives the Yankees the transition from

2008 OUTFIELD

LF - Damon (B-/C+)
CF - Cabrera (C)
RF - Abreu (F-)

2009 OUTFIELD

LF - Damon (B-/C+)
CF - Gardner (B)
RF - Swisher (A)

Keep in mind also that Gardner's 104 OPS+ is light years better than Cabrera's 2008 OPS+ of 68! Cabrera of course is doing much better this season with an OPS+ of 101 but it's still a tick lower than Gardner's. Damon is also better offensively. Last year he posted an OPS+ of 118 and this year that mark has increased to 129.

Given this kind of evidence for the outfield defense, it is no wonder why guys like Burnett, Hughes & Sabathia who are giving up the lowest % of ground balls are benefitting from a decreased BABIP.

But what about that infield defense?

The aquisition of Mark Teixeira was supposed to immediately upgrade the defense given his gold glove status. Last year, the Hardball Times gave Teixeira's defense an "A+" grade making him truly one of the finest defensive 1B around.

This season Teixeira's RZR = .773 and his OOZ is 23. How does that measure up with last year?

2008 Teixeira: RZR = .811, OOZ = 50, Innings = 1,335
2009 Teixeira: RZR = .773, OOZ = 23, Innings = 688
Projected 2009 Teixeira: RZR = .773, OOZ = 44, Innings = 1,327

Teixeira's not playing "A+" defense in New York this season. Last season Daric Barton's final numbers probably give us a decent approximation. Barton's RZR in 2008 was .776 which is almost identical to Teixeria in 2009. In 1,121 innings, Barton had an OOZ of 28 which adjusted for Teixeria's 1,327 innings would give Barton an OOZ of 33.

That's below Teixeira's projected OOZ of 44 which means Teixeira's defense is in the "A-/B+" range. That's still excellent defensively but just a bit off of his prior production in the field.

The big difference however is what the Yankees are getting in 2009 compared to what they were getting in 2008 with Jason Giambi. Adjusting Giambi's innings up to 1,327 projected innings for Teixeira in 2009 we get:

2009 Teixeira: RZR = .773, OOZ = 44
2008 Giambi: RZR = .679, OOZ = 32

Giambi's grade last season at 1B was an "F-". Teixeira is playing "A-/B+" defense at 1B which is huge!

Again, some interpretation is needed with these metrics. Unlike in the OF, OOZ is of less importance at 1B because most of the plays for a first baseman is going to be the putout in which the player catches a throw from the other infielders. From this standpoint, Giambi is brutal. Clearly some of the RZR is going to be made up of groundballs, but for the most part, the first baseman's main priority is to make the putout on a groundball play. The Giambino simply wasn't good at this. Teixeira on the other hand is great at this which not only makes the defense better, but also makes the other defenders better by converting more errant throws into outs because of the 1B "pickin" ability.

Let's take a look at the other 3 defenders in 2008 & their projected 2009 stats based on how many innings they are projected to play:

2008 Cano: 1,376 innings, RZR = .809, OOZ = 30, Grade = "F"
2009 Cano: 1,418 innings, RZR = .843, OOZ = 42, Projected Grade = "B+"

2008 Jeter: 1,258 innings, RZR = .839, OOZ = 29, Grade = "C"
2009 Jeter: 1,271 innings, RZR = .833, OOZ = 25, Projected Grade = "C"

2008 Rodriguez: 1,126 innings, RZR = .703, OOZ = 57, Grade = "A+"
2009 Rodriguez: 818 innings, RZR = .721, OOZ = 27, Projected Grade = "B"

The intersting thing is that the infield defense is much better which does go towards the Yankees defensive efficiency being tops in the AL.

Cano is much better defensively this season than he was in 2008 which is obviously helping the Yankees. Jeter is what Jeter is which is an average defender at SS. The thing with Jeter is that he really doesn't make a ton of plays out of his zone, but he's great at converting the balls hit to him into outs. He's not an Omar Vizquel type of player who makes the spectacular defensive plays but balls in his zone are converted which is good enough.

If you adjust A-Rod's innings, he would be on pace for 37 OOZ plays in 2009 if he played as many innings as he did in 2008. This makes sense intuitively. If A-Rod is having range problems because of his hip injury, then you would see a dip in his OOZ which is essentially a measure of his range. His RZR would remain about the same as it measure he's overall fielding ability for balls hit into your average 3B range. A-Rod is actually getting better on those balls, but given his injury he is seeing a dip in his OOZ but still remains a better than average fielder at the hot corner.

Overall you see the following defensive grades for each year:

2008: 1B = F-, 2B =F, 3B = A+, SS = C, LF = C+, CF = C, RF = F-
2009: 1B = A-, 2B = B+, 3B = B, SS = C, LF = B-, CF = B, RF = A

Of the 7 positions, those are upgrades at 5 of the 7 positions with Jeter staying the same and A-Rod dipping although still remaining above average.

In 2008 the Yankees ranked 12th in the AL in defensive efficiency so they are getting it done with the leather in 2009.

The Yankees lead the AL in RS/G and Defensive efficiency which means the larger part of New York not being a dominating force is the pitching.

Sabathia & Burnett have been solid if not spectacular starters. Sabathia's ERA+ is 119 while Burnett's is 116. Neither hurler has missed a start and both are on pace to pitch well over 200 innings.

There is no doubt that New York has problems with their #5 starter. Wang has been brutal although some of that is luck as his BABIP is around .400 which is almost 100 points higher than league average.

I hate to say it but Joba Chamberlain is a problem in the rotation. He's good as evidenced by his 109 ERA+, but he's thrown only 84.7IP in 16 starts which averages out to 5.3IP/GS. Sure it's enough to qualify for a decision, but those kinds of starts blow out a bullpen in a hurry. Joba has to work deeper into games. Not only does it tax the pen but it also puts pressure on Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte to go deeper into games.

At 23-years of age, Joba is still pretty much a baby, but at some point the Yankees are going to have to take off the kid gloves. If Joba is a #1 starter in waiting then he needs to start showing it. Felix Hernandez is 23-years old too and he's averaging 6.9IP/GS for the Mariners as their #1 starter.

Pettitte has also been a bit subpar. You might think Pettitte is having a carbon copy season of 2008 because his ERA+ is 97 this season compared to last year's 98, but Pettitte isn't nearly the same pitcher he was in 2008. Take a look at these peripherals:

2008: 10.3H/9, 7.0K/9, 2.9K:BB, 2.4BB/9, 0.8HR/9, FIP = 3.71
2009: 9.9H/9, 6.0K/9, 1.6K:BB, 3.7BB/9, 1.2HR/9, FIP = 4.77

FIP is ERA without any contributions from a pitcher's defense. Clearly Pettitte is a run worse in 2009 than he was in 2008! Every important category Pettitte is worse in.

When you think about New York in this light, you see that the Yankees have a couple of #2 starters in Sabathia & Burnett given their current level of performance. They don't have a #5 starter. Their #3 starter is below league average and their #4 starter can only go 5 innings on average.

That's not so hot.

That leaves the only other aspect of the Yankees to be analyzed is the relief pitching.

There are a couple of things to look at there. The first is relief pitching ERA. The Yankees currently rank 7th in the AL in relief ERA with a 4.01 mark. League average is 4.11 so the Yankees rank better than 7 other teams in the AL and are also a bit better than league average. It's not fantastic but you can't really argue that it's bad either.

The other mark is IS% which is the percentage of inherited runners who scored. The Yankees are tied with the Boston Red Sox & Tampa Bay Rays at 29% for the fewest inherited runners scord in the AL. League average is 36% so the Yankees are doing a great job here.

Keep in mind too that the bullpen record of 18-11 is also tops in the AL.

The bullpen has 4 solid arms in Rivera, Coke, Acevas and Robertson. Rivera is the best closer in the game while Acevas & Robertson have been really good. If you combine the numbers for all 4 pitchers you'd get:

133IP, 6.4H/9, 9.1K/9, 3.9K:BB, 2.4BB/9, 1.2HR/9, 2.57ERA, BABIP = .240

Those are fantastic numbers, but the problem sort of shows in the IP. The 133IP between the 4 relievers averages to 33.3IP per pitcher. If you project that out over the entire season then you wind up averaging just 64IP per pitcher which is too low. Individually you get:

Rivera: 69IP
Acevas: 77IP
Coke: 71IP
Robertson: 39IP

That simply isn't enough from the quartet. The problem too for the Yankees bullpen is that they don't have much after those 4. Brian Bruney has had injury problems this year and although he's back, he's struggled mightily with his control thus far. Damaso Marte wasn't any good. Jose Veras hasn't been any good. Edwar Ramirez hasn't been any good. Jon Albaladejo hasn't been any good. Mark Melancon hasn't been very good.

The guy along with Veras & Bruney to fill out the bullpen has been Brett Tomko!

I sort of like the idea of Tomko being a reliever who can give you multiple innings of work if that is indeed the way Girardi is going to use him. So far Tomko has had 14 appearances and I think you could qualify 9 of the 14 as good outings. He's also gone more than 1IP in only 5 of those 14 outings which is a bit wasteful if you ask me.

Still, even with some turmoil in the pen, the Yankees are 1st in IS% and 7th in ERA. Not too shabby.

The bottom line is that the Yankees rank 1st in RS/G. They rank 1st in defensive efficiency. They rank 1st in inherited runners scored percentage. They rank 7th in relief ERA.

However they rank 11th in RA/G and their starting pitching ERA ranks 10th. The weak link right now does seem to be the starting pitching, but...............

It's not like they don't have the horses. If Burnett & Sabathia gets going and Chamberlain is cut loose a bit then the Yankees all of a sudden could go on a ridiculous run. They are currently 50-34 which is playing .595 ball and projects out to a final record if 96-66.

What's most interesting is that the 2009 Yankees are a great defensive team so far with a more than solid bullpen and the best offense in the AL. We haven't been able to say those things for awhile in Yankee Nation and it feels good!

The only ingredient missing is for the starting pitching to pitch like they are capable of and there is basically no stopping the Yankees!

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

IT'S NOT EVEN CLOSE



Simply the greatest MCs ever. It's downright spectacular before Doug E. Fresh comes out, but when he hits the stage, the Boys simply explode. They take a Run-DMC song and flat out own it.

Can you even imagine being a part of NYC Hip-Hop scene in the early 80s?

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

A LOOK AROUND THE STANDINGS ON JULY 4TH!

Happy 4th of July! I thought it would be pretty interesting to take a look around the standings and give some thoughts as to what is going on seeing how we aren't that far away from the All-Star Game. With some teams already having reached 81 games, we are at the halfway point of the season.

• According to run differential the 4 best teams in the AL all play in the AL East. The worst team in the East is Toront at +37. The next highest in the AL are the Minnesota Twins are +29 who are actually in 3rd place in the AL Central. If competition means anything in the postseason, are there really any challengers for the teams coming out of this division?
  
• The Orioles are playing .450 baseball. It's not great but imagine if they weren't playing in the AL East?
• The Yankees are 1GB the Red Sox yet against the Red Sox, Marlins, Phillies and Nationals, the Yankees are a combined 3-14! They are 3-6 against those NL East squads and 0-8 against the Red Sox so far this season! That's incredible.
• The Rays have been about as under the radar as you possibly can be for a team coming off an AL Championship. At +86 they have the best run differential in the AL and just 1 run worse than the Los Angeles Dodgers at this point.
  
• Given how the Yankees have been playing since the return of A-Rod and the run differential of the Rays, if I'm a Boston fan, I think I'm a bit worried at this point. The Yankees are 1 back and the Rays are 4.5 back. Boston has the 3rd best offense in the league but I think they are due for some regression and the kinks in the rotation haven't been settled.
• I wasn't high on the White Sox before the season started, but Gavin Floyd has really suprised me this year giving the Sox a very formidable front-3 in the rotation. Their bullpen has been nothing short of outstanding which combined give them a huge chance at the AL Central. Both Detroit & Chicago are sort of the same team in that they have a below average offense (Chicago's OPS ranks 11th while Detroit's ranks 10th) combined with 3 very good starters (Danks/Buehrle/Floyd v. Verlander/Jackson/Porcello) and good bullpens. Chicago's pen has been better so far, but these are mirror teams. Both squads need offense bad, but while I thought it would be wise for Chicago to sell, they are definite buyers in an attempt to get back to the post season.
• And what about the Twins? They have the best run differential in the division. What has to be a bit scary about the Twins so far is that nothing has really worked in their rotation outside of Nick Blackburn. Blackburn is the only starter with an ERA+ over 100 at 131. Guys like Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker & Francisco Liriano have ERA+ uner 90 which is insane. Slowey has a great record at 10-3, but his ERA is close to 5! Liriano & Baker have the stuff to be #1 starters while Slowey has the stuff to be an excellent #2. If that rotation starts to roll then the AL Central is over.
• The AL West is pretty interesting. Seattle, Texas & Los Angeles are all in it with the Rangers & Halos tied as Seattle trails by 2. The Angels are the most complete team getting more offensive production than even Texas is getting, but they are struggling a bit with the rotation. I think if Lackey & Santana can return to form then it's going to be difficult to beat the Angels in the West. Texas could use a starter or two so it'll be interesting to see if they can possibly snag a Ben Sheets or a Paul Byrd or possibly even a Brad Penny.
  
• The Mariners find themselves in an interesting position. They have the lowest team ERA in the AL and I'm a firm believer in pitching wins championships so the Mariners are in a good spot. On the other hand, they don't have any hitting to speak of outside of Ichiro & Branyan while their biggest trading chips, Washburn & Bedard, are key into where they are or their other trade chip (Adrian Beltre) is almost unmoveable. The Mariners can't exactly bow out of a division race they are very much a part of, but I think the upside here is 2nd place behind the Angels assuming Texas falters.
• The NL East is a very bad joke. It's easily the worst division in all of baseball at the moment. The Phillies lead the division but they'd be a 3rd place team in the Central and a 4th place team in the West. Philly's +14 run differential is tops while the other 4 teams have allowed more runs than they've actually scored.
  
• The real story in the East is the plight of the Mets. They are going through an injury nightmare. They've seen Carlos Delgado, Brian Schneider, Jose Reyes, Ryan Church, Carlos Beltran, John Maine, Oliver Perez and JJ Putz all miss time with injury. That is massively significant and for the Mets to be 2GB with a record of 39-40 is remarkable. At some point the Mets should be healthy which will make them an excellent team worth watching. How that'll play I'm not sure.
• Of the teams out there I really like Atlanta in the East. Maybe I'm being a HOMER but I think they have some pretty good bats in Jones, Escobar, McCann & McLouth. McLouth hasn't hit well as a Brave yet, but he's not horrible either. The big question regarding Atlanta is that they need offense bad and with Tim Hudson coming back, some feel like they could trade Javier Vazquez. Vazquez might be having the career year given that his K/9 is 10+ and his K:BB is 5.7! He's a massive trading chip that could work wonders for a team like Texas or possibly Colorado.
  
• The NL Central is a mess too. Every single team is in play and despite the Pirates selling off their players, they have the 3rd best run differential at +6 despite being in last place. Milwaukee leads the division at +13 with St. Louis at +11 but if you think about Milwaukee being only 7 runs worse than the Brew Crew and 5 runs worse than the Redbirds then essentially you have a wash and can at least argue that Pittsburgh is the best team in the division!
  
• The Pirates are interesting in their selling. A lot of people didn't like the McLouth trade but let's face it, it made Pittsburgh better as Andrew McCutchen is now the CF which is an upgrade and McLouth was just average at a corner. The Pirates probably get better in this deal. Nyjer Morgan can't hold a corner OF spot down so trading him off in the hopes of striking lightning with Lastings Milledge isn't bad. Sean Burnett was a solid pen guy but he was just a pen guy. The front 3 of Duke, Maholm & Ohlendorf have a 20-14 record! I wouldn't be suprised to see the Pirates hang around a bit.
• Maybe the most suprising thing about the Central is how bad the Cubs offense has been. They've scored a lousy 324 runs which is better only than the Astros & Padres! Derek Lee has found his groove this season but the rest of those players have completely and totally sucked. I've read where the Cubs are somewhat regretful about letting Mark DeRosa get away but how could he have made that much of a difference on this team?
  
• Out West the Dodgers are cruising but I'd be worried about the Giants. I don't think the Dodgers are going to give up that lead especially with Manny Ramirez coming back and them holding a 7-game margin, but for the rest of the league, toying with SF getting into the playoff is playing with fire. Lincecum, Cain & Johnson are now a combined 26-9 with an ERA of 3.00! That's an unadjusted ERA+ of 141! Does anyone really want to see that trio in a short game series?
  
• Speaking of San Francisco, is there anyway Lincecum doesn't put them out to a 1-0 lead in the divisional series? The only possibly solution could be Johan Santana of the Mets but with the way things are going, the NL East winner is going to have the worst record of the 4 playoffs teams meaning they'll have to play the Dodgers which gives Lincecum to whoever comes out of the Central. That's ugly and note that I don't think any team out of the Central can match Cain or Johnson in the #2 & #3 starting slots!
  
• According to run differential the 3 best teams in the NL are in the NL West which brings up the 3rd team, the Rockies! What you simply can't ignore about Colorado is their starting pitching. In Jason Marquis, Ubaldo Jiminez, Jason Hammel & Aaron Cook, the Rox have 4 starting pitchers with ERA+ of 100+! That's nothing short of amazing in Colorado and one reason why Colorado is a team that should be feared. The one pitcher who doesn't have an ERA+ over 100 is Jorge de la Rosa whose peripheral stats might be better than everyone elses in the rotation. The bullpen has been good and the Rox are getting some offensive production. I don't think they are as good as Los Angeles but they are probably a more complete team than San Francisco. The real race this season might be San Francisco/Colorado!

So there are some thoughts on the standings right now. If I had to guess on playoff teams I'd go Yankees, Rays, Twins, Angels in the AL. For the NL I'd go Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants.

Those playoff races would be tough to call. It's hard to go against the Yankees in the AL especially if I don't have Boston getting there. Maybe I'm a HOMER and that very well could be the case, but the matchups favor them quite a bit although I think the Twins could be a scary team.

In the NL I'd go Giants. It sounds crazy but they have the 2nd best run differential in the league right now so you can argue they are 2nd best behind LA and I don't see how in a short series they lose with Cain, Lincecum & Johnson. That's just a nightmare. They certainly need a bat or two, but the rotation is simply so good that they can get by with winning games 1-0 or 3-1.

That gives me a Yankees/Giants World Series for 2009, but if I'm keeping with that motif about starting pitching giving the Giants the edge then I almost have to give the Giants the edge in the World Series too.

Right now at BetUS you can get the Giants at +5,000! That might not be a bad play if you believe the Giants will get into the playoffs!

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMES OF THE WEEK

In his latest mailbag, ESPN writer Bruce Feldman had a question that wondered what game would Feldman attend each week if he could watch just one game live in person. Not only is the game taken into consideration but also the atmosphere and the rivalries of the games involved. Feldman said he would have more on this later, but the Savant is going to give this one to you right now! I don't make the Savantonians wait around. Here are the games I'd go to every week if possible and if I could go to only one game that particular week.

WEEK 1: Miami (FL) @ Florida St.

Week 1 starts off with a bang in college football. There are 7 games that strike my fancy from this slate as possibilities. They are:

Georgia @ Oklahoma St.
Alabama v. Virginia Tech (neutral)
Oklahoma v. BYU (neutral)
Colorado St. @ Colorado
Miami-FL @ Florida St.
Oregon @ Boise St.
Cincinnati @ Rutgers

All solid matchups. I'm going with Canes/Noles only because I love this rivalry and I love the Canes. You simply can't get better than a game like this and with both Miami & FSU back on the rise, this game is significant in that it allows the winner a leg up on the competition in the ACC. Plus the game is in Tallahassee so the atmosphere should be amazing.

Week 1 has a lot of BCS implications. I don't think UGA is as good as Florida, but they could play legit spoiler to Oklahoma State. If the Cowboys can get by Georgia there there is nothing stopping them from a 7-0 start before taking on Texas in Stillwater. In all reality this could be a game between the #2 & #3 teams in the nation. By all accounts if Oklahoma State is 7-0 through 8 weeks, they'll be a top-5 team.

The Oklahoma/BYU & Oregon/Boise St games are interesting in that both BYU & Boise are teams that would like to run the table as non-BCS schools and sneak into a BCS game, most likely the Fiesta. The Oregon/Boise St game will be interesting on the blue turf, but the Sooners/BYU tilt is on a neutral field! That is why Bama/Va-Tech gets taken down a notch too.

Week 2: USC @ Ohio St.

A complete no brainer here. Week 2 is a bit softer than Week 1 but the first week doesn't have the firepower that a Trojans/Buckeyes battle does. Huge BCS implications here. If Ohio State can find a way to beat USC at home, then there is really nothing stopping Ohio State from a 9-0 start before heading to Happy Valley which will determine if the Buckeyes go 12-0 and cause great distress among BCS advocates. If USC goes into Columbus and wins their 2nd game with a defense as young as it is, then in reality there is no reason USC shouldn't go 12-0 and face Florida in the BCS Championship. If you are going to get to USC, you have to get to them early and Ohio State has this opportunity. In recent years, USC has found a way to lose a game in Pac-10 play so that is still a factor but this game is a must win for each squad.

Week 2 has some pretty decent matchups too outside of USC/Ohio State. You have South Carolina @ Georgia, UCLA @ Tennessee, Notre Dame @ Michigan, and I think Stanford @ Wake Forest would be a pretty good game. As a Notre Dame homer it kills me to put Ohio State/USC in front of them, but if I could go to only one game, I'd go USC/Ohio St.!

Week 3: Tennessee @ Florida

Week 3 has some solid games such as Michigan State @ Notre Dame and Nebraska @ Virginia Tech, but the Gators & Vols stick out to me as this is Lane Kiffin's introduction to big time SEC football. Florida and Tennessee are big time rivals although the Vols have fallen on hard times the last couple of seasons. As talented as Florida is, Tennessee is no slouch when it comes to athletes and while they might not get past Florida, espeically in the Swamp, with Kiffin stirring the pot a little with comments made during this past recruiting season, you can bet the place will be electric even if Florida wins by a substantial margin.

Week 4: Iowa @ Penn St.

Week 4 is a tough one. I think there are 5 games worthwhile this week which are:

Arizona St. @ Georgia
Iowa @ Penn St.
South Florida @ Florida St.
Miami-FL @ Virginia Tech
California @ Oregon

This one is really hard to pick. Here is why Iowa/Penn State gets the nod. Iowa is a much better football team than given credit for and Kirk Ferentz is a tremendous coach. Last season, the one team that kept Penn State from going undefeated was the 1-point loss to Iowa in Iowa City. That sent Penn State to the Rose Bowl where they finished with their 2nd loss. However, if Penn State wins out then Oklahoma or Florida is crying the blues about being left out.

There is the revenge factor here for Penn State. Plus, Penn State since they get both Ohio State & Iowa at home, have the schedule to make a push for yet another undefeated season. If they can get by Iowa and then chances are good that they'll be 9-0 when they host Ohio State on November 7th.

On the other hand, Iowa could be a dark horse when thinking about the BCS. If they can somehow pull off another upset of Penn State, then they have a real shot at going 10-0 before going to Columbus to take on Ohio State. They do have a 2-week stretch where they go to Wisconsin and to Michigan State, but if they beat Penn State, they'll have serious momentum.

I think the Miami-FL/Virginia Tech matchup is 2nd best and it might be first best really. However, Iowa should be 3-0 and Penn State should be 3-0 heading into this week. Miami could potentially open up 0-2 while Virginia Tech could be 1-2 when these two meet up.

Week 5: USC @ California

Sure USC has a brutal road schedule in the Pac-10, but around this time is the outer limits of getting the Trojans early before this "young" team on defense has congealed into a monster under defensive guru Pete Carroll. If there is an opportunity for a team to make headway in the Pac 10, it's California this season. They get USC at home and if USC finds a way to beat Ohio State, both teams should be undefeated. If Cal can beat USC then they put themselves into the driver's seat in the Pac 10 with a real shot at 12-0 and a BCS Title berth. If USC beats Ohio State and then disposes of Cal on the road. I don't think Oregon on the road will be tough and Oregon State comes to LA this season.

Week 5 has some pretty enticing games though. Michigan/Michigan St, Georgia/LSU, Penn St/Illinois, Oklahoma/Miami-FL, & Oregon St./Arizona St fill out what should be an exciting weekend in college football.

Week 6: Alabama @ Mississippi

This is the week we'll get to see if all the Ole' Miss kool-aid drinkers are proven correct as Johnny Reb welcomes in Nick Saban and the Tide. Everyone knows about Mississippi. They have talent, a good coach in Houston Nutt and a helluva lot of players returning. They also have a schedule that sets up perfectly for a run at the SEC West and a possible undefeated regular season! Mississippi avoids Florida & Georgia from the SEC East this season while getting both Alabama & LSU in Oxford. The Rebs also get Tennessee & Arkansas at home while their toughest road game is going to come either at South Carolina or at Auburn. Ole' Miss should be 4-0 at this point while Alabama will be 4-1 or 5-0 depending on whether or not they beat Virginia Tech in their opener. If Mississippi is for real, this game should be a real doozy.

It's also moving day for the SEC. Not only do Ole' Miss and Alabama lock up, but Florida visits LSU & Georgia heads to Tennessee. I almost put Florida/LSU in the top spot as it's likely to be a night game in Death Valley which represents the closest thing Florida will get to a possible upset and avoidance of their undefeated season, but even if UF loses to LSU, they'll run the table in the SEC East and get to the SEC Championship game. Whether they are 12-1 or 13-0 after the SEC Championship game doesn't really matter.

Week 7: USC @ Notre Dame

I know what you are thinking. OKLAHOMA & TEXAS PLAY THIS WEEK! Here is why I'd take USC & Notre Dame. The first thing is that I'm making the list up and I'm an ND homer and there isn't a bigger game on the schedule than USC for Irish Nation.

The other reason is that this game has massive BCS implications. If USC gets by Cal & Ohio State then this is probably the last test of USC by getting a talented team on the road early enough in the season. By this point the season is practically half over and USC should be just fine by then. If that happens, this is probably USC last test before running the table at 12-0 unless they slip up somewhere.

For Notre Dame it's a huge game. If they get to this game undefeated and win then there is really no stopping ND from going 12-0. They do have a couple of road games against Pittsburgh & Stanford that won't be easy but for the most part, if ND walks out of Week 7 with a perfect record still intact then they'll be 12-0 and indeed playing in the BCS Championship game. The same is true for USC.

The game is more important than Oklahoma/Texas for this reason alone. If USC or Notre Dame run the table, then they are playing in the BCS Championship. Florida has a schedule that is ripe for an undefeated season. If Florida & Notre Dame or USC go undefeated then there is your BCS Championship game no matter what happens in the Big XII.

Week 8: Florida St. @ North Carolina

Week 8 is a little light so I thought I'd get in an intriguing matchup between the Heels and Noles. The other game I thought about was Oregon St/USC, but since I was theoretically at ND to watch USC the week before, I thought I'd hop down to Chapel Hill to see this one. Another matchup could have been South Florida/Pittsburgh which I almost pulled the trigger on, but Keenan Stadium is a place I've actually been to and it's a beautiful place to watch a college football game on one of the more beautiful campuses in America.

The other thought is that this game could be fairly huge. There are some pundits out there that think UNC is possibly a top-10 team which seems ridiculous, but this is Butch Davis' 3rd year as HC for the Heels and he has a loaded roster with 15 returning starters and only 14 lettermen lost from a season ago where the Heels finished with an 8-4 record before losing to WVU 31-30 in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. UNC has a real shot at being 6-0 when this game comes around. They do play at Georgia Tech on September 26th which won't be easy but if they can get by that game they'll be undefeated. That sets up a 7-0 record for next week's game which is a Thursday night game in Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech.

For FSU if they can take care of business at home and beat BYU on the road they'll likely come in 6-0 as well. Even if they had lost to BYU they'd still be undefeated in the ACC with their only big road game after UNC being at Clemson. Clemson is known to fold in the spotlight so a win here maybe puts FSU in the driver's seat for a chance to get to the ACC Championship game for a chance to automatically qualify for the Orange Bowl.

Either way, there are significant implications in this ACC matchup.

Week 9: Texas @ Oklahoma St.

Week 9 has some heavy hitters as we see Georgia/Florida, USC/Oregon, UNC/VT & WVU/USF. Still, the easy choice here is OSU & Texas in Bedlam Redux.

If Oklahoma State can beat Georgia at home and Texas can beat Oklahoma in Dallas then there is no reason why either team won't be 7-0 in this clash of the titans. Both teams should also be in the top-5 I would think. Texas will probably be #2 behind Florida assuming the Gators are still undefeated and Oklahoma State should have garnered some serious national attention if they have beaten Georgia in Week 1.

I can't help but see some parallels here to Texas Tech's situation last season. Oklahoma State is going to be an offensive powerhouse this season much like Texas Tech was a year ago. Oklahoma State is also likely to be undefeated much like Texas Tech was a year ago when the Red Raiders welcomed in Texas. Texas is likely to have beaten Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl much like they did a year ago and then like Texas Tech last season, Oklahoma State will play Oklahoma in Norman after having played Texas.

Now the interesting thing here is that 2008 could repeat itself if Texas beats Oklahoma, Oklahoma State beats Texas and then Oklahoma beat Oklahoma State. This would royally screw over Texas once again, so this game means the entire world to Texas assuming of course both teams are undefeated coming in. Just a huge matchup.

Week 10: Ohio St. @ Penn St.

This wasn't as clear cut as it might seem given the matchup. The other games this week include LSU/Alabama, Florida St./Clemson & USC/Arizona St.

I think OSU/PSU is the game because at a minimum this game decides who is going to the Rose Bowl and at best can decide one team in the BCS Championship. There is also some revenge factor here. Penn State went into Columbus last year and got a close win which put Penn State in the Rose Bowl over the Buckeyes. Now Ohio State might be able to return the favor with a win here. This game is important to Ohio State on two fronts. On the first if they beat USC they'd be playing for a chance at the BCS Title game. On the second front, even if they lose to USC, they can still win the Big 10 outright and try to get a rematch with USC in the Rose Bowl assuming the Trojans don't go undefeated and find themselves playing for a championship.

It's not like Penn State doesn't have anything to play for either. A win here and a win earlier over Iowa and the Lions are practically 12-0 awaiting their fate.

A quick note on Alabama/LSU. This could get really good if Alabama beats Mississippi earlier in the season. If that happens then this game is exceptionally important because LSU has to travel to Alabama. A win by the Tide and there is no reason to think Alabama won't be 12-0 and headed for a rematch with Florida. I think at worst this season Alabama goes 9-3 with losses to Virginia Tech, LSU & Mississippi. Those are the 3 games. If Alabama has beaten Ole' Miss & Virginia Tech by the the time LSU comes calling then this game will have definite significance that might possibly eclipse that of Ohio St/Penn St.

Week 11: South Florida @ Rutgers

I'm off to JOURZEY for this one folks! I wanted a way to work in a Big East game and this looks like the best of the bunch. There is some subtext here as both of these teams should be big favorites to win the Big East with Pittsburgh thrown in there as well. Also USF has the reputation of not playing well up north when the weather is cold so there is always the storyline of them breaking that curse.

Rutgers has such a weak schedule that they could easily be 8-0 by the time this game comes around. They do have a road game at Maryland they'll play Pittsburgh at home before then, but if they take care of business at home in conference, they'll be 3-0 coming into this one.

South Florida has a little bit tougher road to plow. Before getting to this game, USF has road games against Florida State & Pittsburgh but also play Cincinnati & West Virginia at home. If they can take care of homefield in conference then at worst they'll be 3-1 heading into this game with their only loss coming to Pittsburgh. This is a huge game for Rutgers as it most likely will determine if they win the Big East and go play in a BCS Bowl. It's hard to imagine Rutgers going 12-0 but there is a real chance they do it. That schedule is horrificly easy.

Week 12: LSU @ Mississippi

Yeah I know Ohio St/Michigan is this same week, but much like USC/Notre Dame game the same week as Oklahoma/Texas, I think Ole' Miss/LSU has more implication than the Ohio State/Michigan tilt. Yes, I think Michigan is in great hands with Rich Rodriguez. Yes, they are much better than last year and will get to a bowl. No, they aren't good enough to make a difference and even if the game is in Ann Arbor, my guess is that Ohio State doesn't have that much trouble beating Michigan. It might be the last time Ohio State can breath easy playing the Wolverines, but it's still that time.

The LSU/Ole' Miss clash is a barnburner in the SEC. Assuming of course that the Rebels have already taken care of Alabama, Ole' Miss could be undefeated. Furthermore, if LSU beats Alabama in Tuscaloosa then LSU is playing for the right to go back to the SEC Championship game! The other interesting note is that LSU is a fantastic football team that gets Florida in the Bayou.

I'm not saying LSU runs the table, but it's not like they don't have the talent to do so either. If both LSU & Ole' Miss are undefeated when this one rolls around, the game will be incredible. Even if they both have a couple of losses, I think it's still probably a more important game in 2009 than Michigan/Ohio State.

Week 13: Oklahoma St. @ Oklahoma

BEDLAM! This is sort of the last week of the season so there are a bunch of rivalry games but none more important than this one. We've been over the parallels of last season in the Oklahoma State/Texas matchup so I won't rewrite them. Essentially anything can happen. If Texas has taken care of business on both ends then this game won't have the importance it could have.

On the other hand, the BCS is likely to take 2 schools from the Big XII and it's likely that the winner of this game if Texas runs the table will be that other school. Obviously the in-state rivalry is huge and that's enough but a possible BCS Bowl on the line is just some sugar on top. Essentially both teams could very well be 10-1 by the time this one rolls around and there are also some serious Heisman implications here too as guys like Sam Bradford, Dez Bryant, Zac Robinson, Kendall Hunter, DeMarco Murray, Chris Brown, & Jermaine Gresham will all be playing in this one.

Week 14: SEC Championship Game in Atlanta

It's most likely going to be Florida from the East and then either Mississippi, LSU or Alabama from the West. For the last week of the regular season, this is a moot point. There is no place you'd rather be than in the Georgia Dome for this one. There are still some games in the Big 10, Pac 10 & Big East. Of course you also have the Big XII & ACC Championship games, but this is where it's at.

RECAPPING MY TOUR

Here are the games that I'd go see if I could only go to one game each week:

Week 1: Miami-FL @ Florida St.
Week 2: USC @ Ohio St.
Week 3: Tennessee @ Florida
Week 4: Iowa @ Penn St.
Week 5: USC @ California
Week 6: Alabama @ Mississippi
Week 7: USC @ Notre Dame
Week 8: Florida St. @ North Carolina
Week 9: Texas @ Oklahoma St.
Week 10: Ohio St. @ Penn St.
Week 11: South Florida @ Rutgers
Week 12: LSU @ Mississippi
Week 13: Oklahoma St. @ Oklahoma
Week 14: SEC Championship Game (Prediction: Florida v. Mississippi)

Note a bad slate if I do say so myself! Here is a breakdown with how many times I'll see each team:

Mississippi: 3
USC: 3
Florida: 2
Florida St: 2
Ohio St: 2
Oklahoma St: 2
Penn St: 2
Alabama: 1
California: 1
Iowa: 1
LSU: 1
Miami-FL: 1
North Carolina: 1
Notre Dame: 1
Oklahoma: 1
Rutgers: 1
South Florida: 1
Tennessee: 1
Texas: 1

Not too bad. Of Phil Steele's preseason top-25, I'll get to see everyone except the following teams:

Virginia Tech (#11), Boise St (#12), Georgia (#13), BYU (#15), TCU (#18), Illinois (#19), Nebraska (#22), Pittsburgh (#23), UCLA (#24) & Clemson (#25)

The non-BCS teams I can live without seeing to be honest if I could only go to 1-game per week or watch 1-game per week. Of those teams I wouldn't see I'd like to see Virginia Tech, Georgia, Nebraska & Clemson. I don't know how I could fit them in though.

The downside to all of this is that it only makes me wish college football season started sooner! I don't know if I can hold out until September!

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

KEITH LAW ON A-ROD & STEROIDS

There comes a point in time when it becomes superfluous to read ESPN about baseball because they really aren't telling you anything new or anything you couldn't figure out yourself if you've been around the game enough and have a pretty tight control on baseball analysis. Keith Law blows this concept out of the water as you learn something new every single time you read his stuff. My last couple of posts have been on A-Rod & steroids and he address both in his latest chat which is a definite must read. I'll highlight the Q&As that I find relevant and then comment:

Joe (New Jersey)I got to watch the Yankees/Mets on both Saturday & Sunday and there is nothing wrong with A-Rod. "Rolling Wave" in the comments of this blog pointed to his peripheral numbers being excellent and he's completely right. I don't think A-Rod was any worse off in the field or at the plate and on more than a few occassions he was missing by a hair on some balls that were easily HR balls. I can't speak a lot to his running ability, but if people are going to complain about his foot speed then what do you really expect? Not only is the guy 34-years old now but he's got hip problems he needs surgery for. As to his glove, A-Rod's arm to me has always been a bit erratic at 3B. Grabbing Teixeira and his gold glove defense only helps this problem. Against the Mets, A-Rod made a few very solid plays with the glove.

I still think the historical argument is interesting for him and even Baseball Prospectus earlier this season at ESPN said he probably wouldn't break the All-Time HR record. Maybe he will and maybe he won't but historically he makes an interesting case given how the media portrays him with steroids.

Pat (Boston, MA)This is really interesting to me because Law mentions this earlier in the chat too and says that it hasn't been proven that a 5-man rotation lessens the severity of injury to pitchers nor has it been proven that it lessens the frequency of injuries to pitchers. Essentially then the purpose of a 5-man rotation is nothing but a strawman with no validity, but what it also does is allow inferior pitching. Think about it for a second. If you go by a strict 5-man rotation for every 5th game, you are letting your 4th & 5th starter pitch at least 32 games. That's 64 or 39.5% of you ballgames. That's a H-U-G-E amount of games determined by pitchers that are marginal major leaguers at best.

I'm not sure a 3-day or a 4-day schedule is best. It would seem that way, but this ties into the whole PED too for example. If you have a 5-man rotation when all the evidence states that it doesn't help with injury, then all you are doing is allowing bad pitchers the ability to compete. Bad pitchers are going to give up lots of runs and this isn't a good thing.

What it does obviously is pump up statistics for hitters which is the problem that baseball has at the moment.

When you view the discussion in terms like this, the PED questions all but almost go away. If baseball was concerned with not building band boxes for stadiums, evening the playing field for pitchers when it looked like the game was swinging more offensive and built their teams around players who could actually play, then I'm more convinced than ever that we probably wouldn't have seen this massive uptick in HR hit.

Guys like McGwire, Bonds & Sosa can take all the steroids they want, but if they aren't seeing anything worse than a #3 starter at the major league level, those guys don't come close to hitting 60HR in a season, let alone multiple seasons in McGwire's and Sosa's case.

Law talks too about the bullpen. I think that is a big problem too. Most big league teams can have 3-4 good relievers yet they carry 7-8? If an average reliever is getting 50-60IP a season then you have potentially 150-240 innings of non-Major League level relief work out of a pitching staff. When you combine that with your 4th & 5th starter's workload then you are going to start seeing some horrific pitching and an pretty niced size uptick in hitting statistics.

MLB fan (all over)Kruk is refering to PED & steroids. I think a better response to this than the one Law gave is that baseball fans love the game. I know I say this all the time, but when you read Lords of the Realm you come away really thinking that the players, owners, & unions have done everything they can to ruin the sport at different times and yet here is baseball with tremendous popularity even amidts an economic downturn and the whole steroid suspicions.

The sport of baseball simply cannot be killed off.

The steroid scandal is a blight on the game, but in reality, I think for the most part I'm a decided purist and the thing that bothers me the most isn't that they took the drugs. I mean, people can do what they want to do, but I think them messing with the numbers is what is most damning to the sport.

A lot of analysts (Law included) won't give steroids their due in the game because you can't properly account for their influence in the game and to a degree they are right, but it's also noted that you are never going to be able to conduct a double blind study of steroid influenced results in baseball because it's an impossible study to determine.

At the same time I think it's also silly to completely discount them all together. Law makes this statement:

Bear (PHX)This is where Law maybe gets caught up in the hype of not giving steroids their due. However, he does make a good point.

Sosa was up in the show by the time he was 20. You don't get to the majors before you are of legal age if you don't have a tremendous skill set. Also remember that at the age of 21, Sosa in his first full year in the majors hit 15HR and stole 32 bases. I wasn't even in high school for the first few Sosa years but even I remember hearing that this guy was a 30/30 threat.

He came through on that threat in 1993 when he hit 33HR and had 36SB. It's not that Sosa wasn't an All-Star caliber player, but those years from 1998-2001 were just ridiculous. He hit 310/396/662 with an average of 60HR & 149RBI each season!

The only other player in baseball history with a better 4-year average of HR hit is Mark McGwire who from 1996-1999 averaged 61HR a year.

Before Sosa & McGwire exactly 2 people in baseball history hit 60 or more HR a year. Babe Ruth did it once and Roger Maris did it once. Now you had Sammy Sosa & Mark McGwire doing it on average for 4 straight years?

It just doesn't make sense. Can you do a double blind study of it to convice people like Law, Neyer or Will Carroll? Absolutely not, but it's beyond absurd to think all of a sudden that the first 100 years of baseball would produce exactly 2 seasons of 60HR and yet we get on average 8 of them in the same 6-year period?

That's nuts. Plus, even Law states that Sosa was some skinny kid. They list Sosa at 6-feet even and he's not 6-feet although when you saw him with the Cubs he had to be at least 240lbs. I heard once on a WGN broadcast that Sosa's waist was 40-inches around! That's incredible.

Now how many skinny kids less than 6-feet tall that you know of grow up to be 240lbs with a 40-inch waist with less than 10% bodyfat? It's almost physiologically impossible. In fact, I go as far to say that it is without the help of tremendous doses of anabolic steroids.

Look at Arnold Schwarzenegger. He was 240lbs at contest weight during his Mr. Olympia wins and he was an admitted and avid steroid user.

I think Pandora's Box has been opened with PED, but I don't think it's important. There are enough things baseball can do to equalize it out if they really wanted to.

The thing I think is most egregious in all of this is either not admitting that they played a role in influencing statsitics in the late-199os early-2000s and how much of a bad influence they had on the numbers which are extremely important to baseball.

In future posts I'm going to take a look at what we might see from 4-man rotations and 4-5 man bullpens.

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com

UPDATED PROJECTED LEAGUE LEADERS

It's been about 3-weeks since I did a league leaders post so I thought I would go back and project the leaders in each league of specific categories as I did before. I'll start again with the American League and go from there.

American League Hitting

HR: Pena (48), Teixeira (44), Bay (42), Kinsler (41), Cruz (41), Branyan (40), Hunter (39)
RBI: Bay (153), Longoria (134), Teixeira (129), Hunter (128), Morneau (125), Martinez (121)
R: Scutaro (125), Damon (124), Figgins (123), Pedroia (120), Roberts (120), Kinsler (119), Pena (119)
H: Suzuki (235), Hill (214), Figgins (203), Crawford (203), Martinez (201), Young (198), Cano (198)
SB: Crawford (82), Ellsbury (69), Upton (58), Figgins (52), Abreu (39), Jeter (38), Gardner (38)
2B: Roberts (55), Longoria (52), Lind (52), Byrd (52), Young (52), Markakis (49), Morales (48)
BB: Pena (110), Scutaro (108), Swisher (104), Bay (102), Thome (100), Choo (99), Giambi (97)
AVG: Mauer (.396), Suzuki (.371), Bartlett (.363), Cabrera (.337), Rolen (.329), Martinez (.327)
OPS+: Mauer (211), Zobrist (163), Branyan (161), Morneau (155), Youkilis (153), Longoria (150)

The MVP race could get interesting if for nothing else that the Twins right now are behind Detroit and if it stays that way and the Red Sox wind up having the best record in the A.L. then there will be some calls for Jason Bay to get the MVP considering he's on pace to hit
42HR and have 153RBI.

Mauer isn't horrible either in those categories. He's on pace for 30HR & 93RBI. The big thing here is that Mauer is an excellent defensive catcher and that pretty much makes all the difference. It's hard to say where Mauer's batting average will end up, but if he hits .350-30-93 while playing outstanding defense behind the plate, can you really say he's probably not the most valuable player in the league?

Right now he's on pace to hit .396-30-93 so I can't possibly think Bay is ahead of him at this point.

Teixeira is a solid choice at 3rd seeing how it'll be hard for the Yankees to not make the playoffs especially if A-Rod is really heating up like he has been the last few games. Everything else will work itself out.

After the top-3, it gets difficult with Torii Hunter, Carlos Pena, Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler in the mix. I'm going Hunter 4th right now because he's been a huge bat in that lineup and is on his way to having possibly the best year of his career. I'll go Pena 5th because it's hard to argue with 48HR & 110BB while playing for a very good Tampa Bay team who is likely to finish in either 3rd or 4th. I'll go with Kinsler 6th because at this point the Angels look primed to take 1st in the West. Kinsler might be a more sexy pick in 2010 when Texas should definitively win the AL West.

1. Mauer/Twins
2. Bay/Red Sox
3. Teixeira/Yankees
4. Hunter/Angels
5. Pena/Rays
6. Kinsler/Rangers

American League Pitching

ERA+: Greinke (227), Jackson (187), Halladay (170), Weaver (169), Millwood (168), Hernandez (155)
W: Halladay (22), Slowey (22), Greinke (20), Beckett (20), Wakefield (20), Porcello (18), Weaver (18)
K: Verlander (275), Greinke (250), Lester (235), Hernandez (217), Beckett (209), Halladay (190)
IP: Millwood (254), Greinke (245), Sabathia (242), Lee (240), Shields (234), Weaver (233), Verlander (229)
SV: Fuentes (46), Jenks (40), Nathan (39), Rivera (38), Papelbon (38), Rodney (36), Sherrill (33)
K/9: Verlander (10.8), Lester (10.3), Greinke (9.2), Hernandez (8.7), Beckett (8.6), Burnett (8.4)
BB/9: Halladay (1.0), Greinke (1.5), Slowey (1.5), Baker (1.7), Pavano (1.9), Shields (1.9), Buehrle (2.0)
HR/9: Greinke (0.2), Halladay (0.5), Lee (0.6), Padilla (0.6), Meche (0.6), Wakefield (0.6), Verlander (0.6)
K/BB: Halladay (7.3), Greinke (6.2), Slowey (4.8), Baker (4.6), Verlander (3.6), Lester (3.5), Pavano (3.4)
WHIP: Greinke (1.018), Halladay (1.039), Jackson (1.066), Sabathia (1.092), Weaver (1.098), Baker (1.126)

It's the Greinke & Halladay show at this point with Greinke having the edge in having better statistics and doing this while playing for a much poorer team in Kansas City than Halladay in Toronto. Greinke is on pace to win 20 games and that will make the Cy a virtual lock for the righty. Granted, Halladay is on pace for 22-wins but it won't make that much of a difference. I think Greinke could win 17-18 and win the Cy Young if his stats remain where they are now.

The #3-#5 spots are interesting. In my opinion I think the next 3 pitchers in the Cy Young balloting are Justin Verlander, Kevin Slowey & Josh Beckett. Beckett is going to be difficult because he's on pace to win 20 games for a team that might wind up with the best record in the AL. Slowey is easy because he's on pace to win 22 so he's going to garner his fair share. Verlander has become an almost unhittable pitcher with those dominance numbers.

Verlander is on pace to win 18 games, but if he keeps pitching like he has been, it's fair to say that he could wind up winning 19-20 games and if he gets close to striking out 300 hitters on a 1st place Tigers team then good grief how do you keep him out of the top-3 if not top-2?

A wild card in this is Jeff Weaver of the Angels. He's got some pretty great stats. He's on pace to win 18 games, strike out about 180 hitters and throw around 230IP. He's got a solid WHIP and an ERA+ of 169 which is 4th in the AL right now! If the Halos win the West then Weaver at least makes a significant claim to be in the talk of guys who should finish behind Halladay & Greinke in the Cy Young balloting. I'll keep him behind Verlander because of Verlander's gaudy stats and also behind Slowey & Beckett because both of those guys project to win 20+ games, but Weaver could easily sneak up.

1. Greinke/Royals
2. Halladay/Blue Jays
3. Verlander/Tigers
4. Slowey/Twins
5. Beckett/Red Sox
6. Weaver/Angels

National League Hitting

HR: Pujols (56), Gonzalez (54), Ibanez (50), Reynolds (46), Howard (46), Dunn (41), Fielder (40)
RBI: Fielder (153), Pujols (151), Ibanez (135), Howard (130), Braun (118), Hawpe (118), Reynolds (116)
R: Pujols (123), Braun (120), Utley (116), Ibanez (116), Victorino (112), Zimmerman (110), Gonzalez (108)
H: Tejada (219), Wright (212), Hudson (199), Ramirez (199), Sanchez (198), Zimmerman (196)
SB: Bourn (55), Wright (43), Morgan (40), Pierre (39), Kemp (39), Taveras (34), Fowler (29)
2B: Tejada (57), Hawpe (53), Ramirez (52), Sanchez (51), Sandoval (50), Wright (50), Hudson (48)
BB: Gonzalez (137), Dunn (130), Pujols (121), Berkman (121), Fielder (118), Utley (105), Johnson (100)
AVG: Wright (.351), Ramirez (.339), Beltran (.336), Sandoval (.335), Guzman (.333), Hawpe (.332)
OPS+: Pujols (199), Gonzalez (179), Fielder (165), Ibanez (163), Braun (159), Utley (158), Ramirez (155)

Pujols is somewhat of a teflon don when it comes to baseball these days. It very much reminds me of the attitude around baseball when Sosa & McGwire were chasing Maris in 1998. It also reminds of how everyone was putting their faith in A-Rod to restore some validity to big time power numbers after all the steroid allegations came out about McGwire, Bonds, Sosa and Palmeiro. Now that A-Rod has also admitted to steroid use all we have left is Albert Pujols.

I'm not saying Pujols is on PED or not, but suffice to say that baseball can't test for hGH so it's entirely possibly for Pujols be on human growth hormone and be fooling us all. If it wasn't for the steroid era, this might not be a consideration, but Pujols is simply the best hitter in the game and it's really not even that close. Combine that with his outstanding defense at 1B and we might be looking at the greatest 1B of all time. Is he really better than Lou Gehrig & Jimmie Foxx?

I think at least there has been some speculation about his age too. Either way, what are the odds that Pujols is the greatest 1B of all time and possibly one of the top-5 hitters to have ever played the game opposed to him being a year or two older and a user of undetectable PED?

I'm just sayin', but doesn't it feel like baseball after the 1994 strike put all it's hopes and dreams in Cal Ripken breaking Lou Gehrig's record? Then it really felt like baseball was back when they jumped on the Sosa & McGwire bandwagon? Then when Bonds made a mockery of baseball itself with his cheating ways, didn't it feel like A-Rod was the next player to put your faith in?

Now with A-Rod gone that faith has been transferred to Pujols? There is symmetry here unfortunately.

As to the MVP race, how can Pujols not be a front runner unless the voters simply want to give it to somebody else? Pujols is on pace to go .323-56-151 with a 199 OPS+ which would represent the best year of an already ridiculous career. It would be his 3rd MVP and his 8th top-5 finish in a 9-year career. The one lone year he finished outside the top-5 was 2007 when he finished 9th.

Beyond Pujols I think the 2nd & 3rd place finishers are probably some combo right now of Prince Fielder & Adrian Gonzalez. Milwaukee is at least challenging for the NL Central and the NL Wild Card and if he finishes with 40HR and 153RBI it'll be almost impossible to ignore.

Gonzalez may have even more claim on the silver medal be being on pace for 54HR while playing in Petco Park.

Behind those 3 has to be a Phillies player in either Chase Utley or Ryan Howard. I think Utley is the far superior overall player so I'd go with him in 4th and then maybe Ryan Braun in 5th.

David Wright is having a pretty amazing year hitting .351 with an OPS+ of 149, but he's on pace to hit 9HR! If he was hitting .351 and on pace to hit 35HR then he'd be a legit 40/40 possibility as he's on pace to steal 43 bases. If Wright was on pace to challenge and possible go 40/40 while hitting .350+ then there is no doubt that he'd be the front runner for the NL MVP while playing for a Mets team that is chasing the playoffs. Given that he's supposed to be a big producer and yet is on pace for 9HR and 88RBI seems to put him down a notch. I'd probably go:

1. Pujols/Cardinals
2. Fielder/Brewers
3. Gonzalez/Padres
4. Utley/Phillies
5. Braun/Brewers
6. Howard/Phillies
7. Wright/Mets

National League Pitching

ERA+: Haren (204), Lincecum (170), Cain (170), Cueto (158), J.Johnson (154), Gallardo (150)
W: Santana (20), Cain (20), Marquis (20), Billingsley (20), Arroyo (18), Duke (18), Gallardo (18)
K: Lincecum (279), Vazquez (260), Haren (228), Gallardo (226), Santana (225), Billingsley (217) IP: J.Johnson (240), Lincecum (236), Haren (236), Duke (233), Billingsley (229), Cain (229)
SV: Wilson (45), Bell (45), Rodriguez (45), Cordero (41), Broxton (39), Capps (38), Hoffman (38)
K/9: Lincecum (10.6), Vazquez (10.6), Peavy (10.1), de la Rosa (9.8), Gallardo (9.4), Santana (9.3)
BB/9: Piniero (1.2), Haren (1.2), Hamels (1.8), Vazquez (1.8), Harang (1.9), Lilly (1.9)
HR/9: Piniero (0.2), Lincecum (0.3), Jiminez (0.4), Lowe (0.4), Billingsley (0.4), Maholm (0.5)
K/BB: Haren (7.4), Vazquez (5.9), Hamels (4.8), Lincecum (4.4), Lilly (3.9), Harang (3.8)
WHIP: Haren (0.815), Vazquez (1.050), J.Johnson (1.081), Lilly (1.106), Cueto (1.137), Lincecum (1.143)

The NL gives us a couple of problems named Dan Haren & Javier Vazquez. Statistically, Haren has been the best pitcher in the NL although not quite the most dominant. The two most dominant pitchers so far in the NL this season have been Tim Lincecum and Javier Vazquez.

The problem with Haren is that he's on pace to finish the year with a record of 13-11 playing for a potential last place team in the Arizona Diamondbacks. Javier Vazquez has similiar problems in that he, along with Lincecum, has been incredibly dominant, but right now plays for a 4th place team with a losing record (Atlanta) and is on pace to finish the season with a record of 11-13! There is no way on God's green earth that a losing pitcher is going to garner any respect from a Cy Young voter.

With those two guys out of the way, we are essentially left with a group of pitchers that include Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo & Johan Santana.

From a purely dominant standpoint you really can't go wrong with Tim Lincecum yet again. He got off to a rough start but the kid is on pace to finish 2nd in IP with 236 while piling up 279K! That's ridiculous! That's 54 more K than Johan Santana and also 19 fewer IP than Lincecum. Lincecum's rate stats are also better than Santana's so despite Santana being on pace for 20W while Lincecum is on pace for 16W, it seems that Lincecum would be the favorite here. Plus, Lincecum has the 2nd best ERA+ in the league at 170. If Haren can't win the Cy with a 13-11 record then effectively Lincecum has the best ERA+ of anyone in the group save his own teammate Matt Cain who also boasts an ERA+ of 170.

Cain is on pace to win 20 games, but in all other categories he sort of pales to Lincecum. Lincecum is on pace to pitch more IP, have more K, have a better K/9, a better K:BB, a better HR/9 and a better WHIP. Unless the projected 4 more wins for Cain outdoes Lincecum then I don't see how you can argue for Cain.

On the other hand, Cain is on pace to finish the season 20-4 or 20-5. If he keeps up that record with a 170ERA+ then the voters might lean towards Cain since Lincecum won it last season with a record of 18-5. As it stands now, the Giants are actually in the Wild Card lead with an abysmal offense so Cain & Lincecum would get massive votes.

If you think that Cain & Lincecum might split each other's votes, then think about Chad Billingsley for a minute. He's the ace of the team with the best record in the majors. He's on pace to win 20 games. He's on pace for almost 230IP and 220K. He's got solid peripheral stats and is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game behind Lincecum & Vazquez right now among NL hurlers. If you are going by winners only then it's hard to imagine a 20-game winner for the best team in the NL not getting a ton of attention from Cy Young voters when it comes time to send in the ballots.

The other guy I have in here is Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers. The Brewers are fighting for a playoff spot and Gallardo has a lot to do with it by becoming the ace of the Brew Crew staff. He's on pace for 18W, 226K & 200+IP while maintaining solid peripherals. It's doubtful he'll get enough support to win the award unless he wins 20+ games and the Brewers win the Central but he's at least a part of the discussion given what he's done to date and what he's projected to do. Right now I'd go:

1. Lincecum/Giants
2. Cain/Giants
3. Billingsley/Dodgers
4. Haren/Diamondbacks
5. Vazquez/Braves
6. Santana/Mets
7. Gallardo/Brewers
8. Wainwright/Cardinals

I'm throwing in Wainwright because he deserves it. It's fairly amazing that the 4 best pitchers in the NL all reside out west. If I had to predict though, I'd say Billingsley is the front runner although I think Lincecum should be in line for his 2nd Cy Young in a row!

So to recap I think the winners are:

AL MVP: Joe Mauer/Twins
NL MVP: Albert Pujols/Cardinals
AL CY YOUNG: Zack Greinke/Royals
NL CY YOUNG: Tim Lincecum/Giants

In a few weeks I'll check back in and see how it's fairing!

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? E-MAIL ME! baseballsavant@gmail.com